Conflict Hot Spots: Emergence, Causes and Consequences by Alex Braithwaite

By Alex Braithwaite

Militarized conflicts among states seem to take place many times within the similar geographic areas. either global Wars and a sequence of interstate disputes within the post-Cold conflict procedure had their origins within the Balkans quarter of jap Europe. Braithwaite introduces the concept that of a clash scorching spot to the wider empirical literature on clash procedures. He devotes enormous time to deciding upon the typical reasons and results of clash scorching spots throughout many areas globally and by way of doing so deals a theoretical and empirical contribution to an rising literature that focuses upon the spatiality of clash tactics. instead of basically controlling for spatial dependence among episodes of clash, this examine comprises this spatial dependence inside of a chain of types of clash behaviors and is, for this reason, capable of without delay version the method of clash diffusion.

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It should be noted, however, that identification of these regions also rests upon the coming together of at least two Great Power’s spheres of influence and interest (Cohen 1982). As such, these regions are likely to be more readily identifiable at times of Great Power competition than during periods of hegemony. Nonetheless, I argue here that “shatterbelts” are indicative of variance in the underlying value attributed to different locations and, therefore, of the higher likelihood of certain locations being targeted by uses of force.

3 (spatial-temporal clustering): The locations of conflict onsets cluster in space-time in a manner that produces conflict hot spots. According to this argument, it is important to observe evidence that consecutive locations occur not only closer in time to one another but also at a more proximate geographic distance than one would expect via random distribution. Such evidence makes it more likely that we might subsequently identify a diffusive mechanism underlying the onset of international conflict.

A number of these disputes are those that lead up to the outbreak of World War One—perhaps most notably those that contribute to the Balkan Wars of the 1910s.  State independence, the membership of the international system, and region membership are each defined here in accordance with the state system membership data of the Correlates of War project (COW 2005). 3 depicts the fourth period, with the two World Wars at either extreme (1914 –1945). This period appears, unsurprisingly, to have witnessed an explosion of disputes in Eastern Europe as well as the emergence of a number of disputes in the Middle East.

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